A new study from Vesta and Javelin finds similarities and differences between merchants selling digital goods, physical goods or both when it comes to expectations for how fraud trends may change following the roll-out of EMV. More than half of all merchants worried about growing fraud cite EMV as a cause for this concern, but digital goods merchants are more likely to increase fraud and chargeback management spending over the next year relative to their counterparts.
Concerns around increasing fraud, and therefore risk and chargeback management spending, in a post-EMV world are certainly warranted. According to projections from Javelin, card fraud losses at the point-of-sale are expected to steadily decline from $6 billion in 2014 to $5 billion in 2018. Card Not Present channel fraud, however, is expected to nearly double from $10 billion to $19 billion over that same time frame.