According to estimates from Javelin Strategy and Research, there was an 8 percent increase in U.S. consumers impacted by payment card fraud at the point-of-sale in 2016, while those victimized by card not present fraud grew at a much larger rate. Although the industry was bracing for an increase in CNP fraud with the rollout of EMV and more fraud attempts shifting online, the increase in card present fraud was less expected. Keep in mind that while more secure cards and POS terminals has and will shift more fraud attempts to the card not present channel, the fraudsters who specialize in counterfeit card and POS fraud are maximizing their efforts and potential now while they still can.
As one of the last major economies and modern payment systems to adopt the more secure EMV card and payment technology, the U.S. has plenty of history to study for perspective on what to expect. At least this was enough history to expect a shift of more fraud to the online channel in response to cracking down on counterfeit card fraud at the physical point-of-sale. The level of growth in CNP channel fraud that occurred in 2016, however, may still have exceeded expectations.