Cyber Monday 2020 was the largest online shopping day in US history reaching $10.8 billion, but that superlative will likely be replaced this year as over $12.1 billion is forecasted for US online sales on Cyber Monday in 2021. As eCommerce holiday sales continue to surge, they are also pulled forward and spread out by consumers, worried about supply chain issues, beginning their holiday shopping earlier than usual. Nearly one-third of consumers plan to begin their holiday season shopping in the month of October. The question for online retailers is what does this mean for fraud and risk management during the holiday shopping months, which tend to be the most lucrative for merchants and fraudsters alike?
Cyber Monday once again set the record for the largest online shopping day in the United States as consumers spent more than $10.8 billion online. Black Friday online sales also topped last year’s with $9.03 billion in online sales, but neither day lived up to the elevated expectations for online holiday spending during the pandemic.
A common theme throughout 2020 has been the acceleration of digital adoption across both businesses and consumers. We take a look at the lingering impacts on payments and risk across multiple studies and reports comparing consumer and fraudster activity between 2019 and 2020.
Alibaba, China’s largest online company, reported gross merchandise value (GMV) of $30.8 billing on Singles Day or 11/11. This metric, which represents the dollar value of goods sold by third parties over Alibaba’s platform, is up 22 percent from last year. Singles Day is the largest online shopping day in China, far exceeding the value of US online sales on Cyber Monday which reached a record $7.9 billion in 2018.
According to marketing analytics data from Jumpshot, when Amazon’s Prime Day kicked-off on Monday July 16 their daily sales conversion rate was just 4.5 percent higher than the previous Monday. On Tuesday July 17, however, after Amazon resolved many technical issues, the largest online retailer enjoyed a sales conversion rate 40 percent higher than the previous Tuesday, ultimately making Prime Day a success with over $4 billion in online sales. Despite website and checkout issues at launch Amazon saw a slight bump in conversion on the first (partial) day of their sale, but correcting these errors to led to an additional 35.5 percent increase in conversion the following day.
Desktop and mobile eCommerce sales reached a combined $14.5 billion across Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, while CNP channel sales on each day increased by at least 17 percent year-over-year. The nearly $6.6 billion in eCommerce sales on Cyber Monday set a new record for the largest online shopping day in North America, as Cyber Monday marked the fifth consecutive day with over $1 billion in online sales.
Online and mobile eCommerce sales on Thanksgiving Day increased more than 18 percent to $2.87 billion this year. Digital commerce sales exceeded $5 billion on Black Friday and reached $6.59 billion on Cyber Monday, each increases of about 17 percent from last year.
Alibaba shattered previous sales records on Single’s Day in China, the largest global online shopping day of the year, reaching $25.3 billion in purchase volume across their Taobao and TMall platforms on November 11, 2017. Alibaba’s sales on this one day exceed the total volume of online sales in the United States from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, underscoring the size and significance of the Chinese eCommerce market.
Alibaba enjoyed $17.8 billion GMV on Single’s Day in 2016, previously the largest online shopping day of all time. On Single’s Day 2017, sales across Alibaba’s platforms increased by nearly 40 percent to $25.3 billion. Alibaba also reported that 90 percent of the gross merchandise volume came from mobile transactions.
Consumers continue to shop more online and from their mobile devices on Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday with another record-setting year. Black Friday 2016 turned out to be the third largest desktop eCommerce shopping day of all-time in the U.S., but Adobe, including mobile commerce, estimated online Black Friday sales to reach $3.34 billion, surpassing even Cyber Monday from last year. Black Friday became the largest online shopping day in the U.S. including desktop, smartphone and tablet transactions, but this status was short-lived and soon surpassed by this Cyber Monday, when consumers spent $3.39 billion online across all devices.
According to comScore, from November 1st to Black Friday consumers spent over $24.5 billion online from PCs, a 12 percent increase from the corresponding time frame last year. Much of this increase in desktop eCommerce spending occurred on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, when eCommerce volume increased 17 and 19 percent, respectively, from 2015 levels. This included $1.29 billion in desktop eCommerce sales on Thanksgiving and nearly $2 billion spent on Black Friday. Adobe, which included mobile and tablet sales in addition to desktop eComerce, estimated total Black Friday online sales at $3.34 billion, a 22 percent increase from 2015. This marked the largest online shopping day in the U.S. of all-time, records that had previously been surpassed each Cyber Monday.
According to estimates from comScore, U.S. consumers spent over $7.2 billion online from PCs during the five day period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, up 10 percent from $6.5 billion last year. As more consumers chose to shop online retail sales at the point-of-sale declined on Thanksgiving and Black Friday for the second consecutive year. According to estimates from ShopperTrack, brick-and-mortar sales totaled $1.8 billion on Thanksgiving and $10.4 billion on Black Friday, each down about 10 percent from 2014.
Meanwhile desktop eCommerce retail spending on Black Friday grew nearly 10 percent this year to $1.66 billion up from $1.51 billion in 2014, according to comScore data. Although ShopperTrak reports that brick-and-mortar retail volume fell 10 percent on Black Friday, it still totaled $11.6 billion for the day, which is about 7 times the desktop eCommerce spending. While the bulk of Black Friday sales still occur at physical retail stores the share of total Black Friday sales occurring online continues to grow as online spending trends upward and in-store spending hits another year of decline. Nearly 16 percent of Black Friday sales occurred online this year, compared to 14 percent last year, 11 percent in 2013 and below 9 percent every year prior.
Recent forecasts from eMarketer estimate eCommerce retail sales will exceed $305 billion in 2014, a 16 percent increase from last year, as more than $72 billion in eCommerce sales are expected to occur during the holiday season. These e-retail volume forecasts include transactions completed from mobile devices, which are expected to grow by 37 percent from last year and comprise 19 percent of the total eCommerce market by the end of 2014.
Mobile retail sales are expected hit $58 billion in 2014, accounting for 19 percent of total eCommerce retail sales during the year. Forecasts have predicted rapid mobile growth as this $58 billion mobile sales figure is a 37.3 percent increase from the $42.3 billion in U.S. mobile retail sales during 2013. If the forecast holds true, this will propel mobile to represent nearly one-fifth of total eCommerce sales this year, compared to 16 percent in 2013.